Agricultural Inputs Industry Report

April 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -1.8% 0.7% 762 0.00 0.18 -1.21 0.0 -4.48 0.000 0% -1.97000
first_quart -0.2% 1.5% 83800 2.66 1.06 1.09 0.0 0.39 0.000 0% -0.80700
median 0% 2.3% 293000 13.20 1.69 1.93 9.9 0.85 1.000 0.5% 0.00153
mean 0% 2.6% 2010000 19.70 2.46 2.10 29.9 1.34 0.657 1.5% -0.13800
third_quart 0.2% 3.1% 2480000 19.90 2.58 3.16 24.1 1.87 1.000 1.7% 0.47100
max 1.4% 9.2% 22500000 838.00 85.70 6.88 1260.0 8.94 1.000 21.5% 1.96000



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.1273
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2785


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0363
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0598




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
MOS 2020 Q4 $20.13 98.73% 153.02%
ICL 2020 Q4 $4.17 46.44% 109.09%
SMG 2020 Q4 $171.44 42.31% 53.8%
NTR 2020 Q4 $44.2 35.88% 32%
FMC 2020 Q4 $111.32 23.18% 36.31%
AVD 2020 Q4 $14.74 22.06% 42.11%
CF 2020 Q4 $33 5.24% 42.75%
CTVA 2020 Q4 $35.74 -1.6% 2.37%
UAN 2020 Q4 $9.71 -37.89% -18.53%
CGA 2020 Q4 $2.6 -43.13% -20.5%
BIOX 2020 Q4 $5.68 -44.09% -37.98%
IPI 2020 Q4 $12.44 -47.42% -58.65%
RKDA 2020 Q4 $3.06 -52.56% -53.48%
SEED 2020 Q1 $6.05 -56.11% 23.37%
YTEN 2020 Q3 $6.15 -57.66% -30.53%
MBII 2020 Q3 $1.22 -57.75% -65.49%